The drastic economic rise of China paired with its surprising changes
in increasing its participation to the world affairs sparked the proponent’s
interest in developing a comparative analysis to this major development in
relation to the United States position as the major superpower of the world for
the past decades. China and the United States are undeniably two different
worlds, with different and varying ideologies, principles and views not only in
governance and politics, but to almost every aspect to society present. This
singular idea heightened the proponent’s curiosity and led her to questions
like: “How would it be like, when China replaces the US world supremacy?”
“Would socialism and the hints of it be the new mantra of world order,
replacing Democracy?” “Would US gracefully accept this defeat, or the beginning
of this replacement will mean war and bloodshed?”
Therefore, in answering all these questions, we
must first make a systematic, fact-based and research-oriented study on the
possibilities and “impossibilities” of this reign change through looking into
the dimensions which will lead us to understand the competition level between
the United States and China.
Therefore, in order to answer all these queries, it is essential to lay down not just facts and figures, but concepts, principles and theories that would help us get the clearer picture of the future of world order.
To give and take, all these are proofs of the beauty of International
Studies as a major field of study. It does not only provide us with facts, concepts
and schemes, it facilitates our learning by allowing us to create our own
theories and conclusions to major world issues. Here we get to really use our
brains to the limit. Thus, this study aims to formulate a concrete, well-built
conclusion about the future of these two superpowers—and their struggle to be
number one.
I.
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NEXT BIG CLASH: An Introduction
“We’re clearly moving to a Post-American world.
This is a world that is not dominated by the United States but not dominated by
anyone else yet either.”— Fareed Zakaria, a notable columnist of an online news
forum has stated this very strong line. Undeniably, in so many ways, this
statement is true. We are indeed in a multipolar world dominated by no one but
a diverse community of interacting states and non-state actors aiming for
higher standards of human life. Despite the legitimacy of this statement, we do
not put forward any notion that America is in decline. In fact, an ever
powerful United States of America, more vigilant and responsible to choosing
its own battles is what we have in our midst-- an America that has regained the
trust and confidence of the world after the hostile and aggressive years of
combating terrorism under the former President Bush’s administration.
Now, without much scrutiny and analysis, we see a
rise of Chinese supremacy. The dragon has started to manifest its might in the
economy of the world, and even more interesting is its increasing participation
in the political aspect of the international arena; a clear manifestation of
determination to be at par with the ever strong, ever mighty United States of
America.
II.
China: The Rise of the Next Superpower
Many political analysts believe that
world systems and the rise and fall of power is recurring. As clichés put it,
“History repeats itself”, I for one believe that it is an uncontrollable fate
that sooner or later, the United States of America will be replaced by another
major power. Tracing back our history, we have seen major power transitions.
The most evident is the rise of Europe following the Industrial Revolution, and
the rise of the United States of America, after the civil war.
Now, to support claims of the probability
of an emerging China able to replace USA, it is empirical to study hard facts
and data to the major aspects defining People’s Republic of China as a
sovereign state.
a.
Economic Dimension
According
to a major online database centering on studying the economic situation of the
world, EconomyWatch.com, as of the year 2012, China ranks second to the United
States as the world’s largest economy by both nominal GDP and Purchasing Power
Parity. United States of America having a sum of $14,624,180,000,000 while
China which ranks close with $10,084,370,000,000.
In
addition, from 2010 onwards to present, China overtook Germany as the world’s
largest exporter of goods. China rose and took an enormous 17.7% of product
exporting around the globe-- a vast chunk in the trade industries among all
nations in the world. (BBC News, 2010)
This is a
very clear indication of China’s competency to rise to the higher ranks of
world polity. Why so? The availability of resources compounded with the
influence harbored through trading ties between and among nations surely
establishes a very strong foundation of irrevocable power and influence to stir
the world order. Idealism aside, with great resources a single state regardless
of size, population, creed, can do whatever it pleases.
b.
Military Dimension
Among the nations in the world, only five
states possess nuclear weapons. Duly recognized by the NPT or the
Non-proliferations Treaty these five states are China, France, Russia, United
Kingdom, and the United States. With the enormous value of resources required
to build such arsenals, it is certain that only those states with enough power
and resources will be capable of building it. Needless to say, this means China
is equally capable of fighting head to head with its counter-parts like that of
the United States of America.
Another,
proof of the great China’s military prowess is the fact that it still holds the
title as the world’s largest standing army since early 2000. With an
approximate number of 2.3 million army men, China remained in the top rank with
United States only second in the list basing on the number of service men
available. (Bezlova, 2006)
Though the
size of an army can only relatively affect the quality of the country’s
defense, size still does matter.
To add,
China is one of the three states in the whole world to launch a manned space
mission, together with the United States and Russia. This is another evidence
of the capability of the Chinese to be at par with the major superpowers of the
world.
All these
boil down to the quantity and quality of resources possessed by a state. The
military prowess of a state is directly proportional to the quality and
quantity of resources the state owns. Thus, with the resources China has, achieving
military supremacy is never impossible to achieve.
c.
Political Dimension
The mantra of Chinese foreign policy is
to "unswervingly pursue an independent foreign policy of peace. The
fundamental goals of this policy are to preserve China's independence, sovereignty
and territorial integrity, create a favorable international environment for
China's reform and opening up and modernization construction, maintain world
peace and propel common development." Geared with these goals, China has
opened its doors to the world after years of isolation.
Unlike the liberalist’s goals of many
states like that of US and European States, China boldly uses the realists
point of view of establishing relationship to the rest of the world—China does
not devote its time mainly on advancing its ideology to the world, rather a
realistic approach of safeguarding its national interest and integrity in the
planet.
Indications of opening its doors to the
world to forward its own interests, PRC gained admission to United Nations and took
the Chinese seat as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. China is
also a member of numerous formal and informal multilateral organizations,
including the WTO, APEC, BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the
G-20.
Having enough resources and military
capabilities, China’s political activity and participation to the world
completes the ingredients of becoming a superpower. Resources through its rich
economy, power through its military strength, and influence through its active
participation to world affairs, China sure is on the right track onwards to
emergence and transformation from a great power to a major superpower.
III.
WWUSD (What Would US Do): General Overview of US FP to China
The Sino-American relation is viewed by
political analysts as a multi-faceted and complex scheme. Both are neither
enemies nor allies. Still, both share the same ideals when it comes to the
preservation of world order, protection of human rights and safeguarding the
environment.
As China competes its way to the top of
the chain, United States made strategic plans in halting the possibilities of a
power transition, or to the least, created efforts to an effective coexistence
in the world political arena.
As US State Secretary Hillary Clinton puts
it, when confronted to the question on how US will respond to the rise of
China, she said, "We see the Chinese economic relationship as essential to
our own country, so we're going to consult and work in a way that will be
mutually beneficial. " She continues, “"We see the Chinese economic
relationship as essential to our own country, so we're going to consult and
work in a way that will be mutually beneficial."
Thus, what kept the US-China relationship
together despite threats of competition and battle for supremacy are the
economic ties that bind the states together. United States insures a resilient
economic tie with China, a very strategic maneuver to halt the doomed power
transition and the head to head battle that the 21st century world
greatly fears.
V. US Actions on
Chinese Claim Territories
a. Taiwan or Republic of China
The United
States Foreign Policy to Taiwan is in general very complex and distinct. Since
the United States recognized the People’s Republic of China (PRC) government as
China’s sole legitimate government, US maintained an unofficial yet highly
extensive diplomatic relations with Taiwan. These were all based on the
framework of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act (TRA—P.L. 96-8) and shaped by three
U.S.-PRC communiqués. U.S.
U.S. policy
toward Taiwan are based on the following:
(1) Taiwan Relations Act
It remains
the domestic legal authority for conducting unofficial U.S. relations with
Taiwan today. Much of the TRA deals with the logistics of U.S.-Taiwan relations:
the establishment of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) as the unofficial
U.S. representative for interactions and consular activities with Taiwan,
including details about AIT’s staffing, functions, and funding; and the
continued application of existing U.S. laws and treaties affecting Taiwan after
the severing of diplomatic ties.
(2) Three Communiqués between the
United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)
·
Shanghai Communiqué
(1972), in which the United States
“acknowledge[d]" that both China and Taiwan maintain there is but one
China, declared it did “not challenge that position," and reaffirmed its
interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question.
• Communiqué on Normalization of Relations with
the PRC (1979), in which the United States recognized the PRC government as
the sole legitimate government of all China and “acknowledge[d] the Chinese
position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China", and
• August 17 Communiqué on Arms Sales to Taiwan
(1982), in which the United States stated it had no intention of pursuing a
“two-China" policy; that it appreciated China's pledges to strive for a
peaceful solution to the Taiwan question; and that it did not plan on a
long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan.
(3)
Six assurances given to Taiwan, and (4) the Taiwan Policy Review.
The six
assurances stated are as follows: Had not agreed to set a date certain for
ending arms sales to Taiwan; had not agreed to engage in prior consultations
with Beijing on arms sales to Taiwan; would not play any mediation role between
Taipei and Beijing; had not agreed to revise the TRA; had not altered its
longstanding position on the issue of sovereignty over Taiwan; would not attempt
to exert pressure on Taiwan to enter into negotiations with the PRC
b. Tibet
There is still no
legitimacy on the claimed sovereign rights for Tibet by Tibetans against China.
China holds it strong that Tibet is part and parcel of the People’s Republic of
China. In fact, China sees itself as a major provider of extensive economic
support to development of the Tibetan economy using funds from the coffers of
the government from PRC taxpayers. Chinese government heads are perplexed on
how aggressive and how Tibetan act as if they are oppressed and abused by China
despite all the benefits they have received from it.
The main root of this issue is the impact
of PRC control on Tibet’s language, culture, and religion. Tibetans believe
that PRC government’s interference of their culture and long-held values and
traditions are a major disrespect of their very own creed. With this
longstanding brawl, the United States plays a crucial role in maintaining its
relationship with both sides.
Generally, the
United States of America is not siding to any of both the parties. In fact,
America is serious on its efforts on assisting both these parties to pursue
measures in solving this cultural dispute to the extent that the recent meeting
by President Barack Obama sparked controversies that the US is compromising all
its relationship with China just to side with Tibet.
Thus, the
following measures made by the United States towards Tibet will explain the
real score behind US continuous communication and relationship with Tibet.
1.
Tibetan Policy Act
of 2002
The Act
mandates that the U.S. President and Secretary of State will attempt to get
China and Tibet to negotiate an end to their half-century of grievances. Its
overall purpose is to "support the aspirations of the Tibetan people to
safeguard their distinct identity."
2.
Obama’s meeting
with the Dalai Lama
Though the
meeting angered China, President Barack Obama stressed out that the meeting was
part of US-China relations and pointed out that the US position is considering
Tibet as part of China and not as a rebel state.
3.
Creation of Special
Coordinator for Tibetan Issues within the Department of State whose central objective is to encourage and promote dialogue between
the Dalai Lama and the government in Beijing; and a specific declaration of
U.S. policy objectives on Tibet, including economic, cultural, and
environmental support objectives; release of political prisoners in Tibet;
establishment of a State Department office in Lhasa; and an effort to ascertain
the whereabouts and well-being of the 11th Panchen Lama.
c.
Spratly’s
Spratly Island is a disputed territory located in
the South China Sea, now known as the West Philippine Sea. Consists of
approximately 100 more islets made up of coral reefs, sandbars and atolls, the
Spratly islands is subject by a longstanding territorial dispute among
countries like China, Malaysia, Philippines and Brunei. Each nation claims
rights to all or part of the island which resulted to an endless tug-of-war
among the states. With China as the most powerful and influential claimant of
those mentioned, resolutions on the dispute has never yet achieved primarily
because China using its influence dominates and remains stiff in resolving the
matter.
The United States of America, being a nation who
has the belief that it is pre-destined to be the ultimate police and watch-dog
of international peace and prosperity, has applied its own policies to hasten
the solution of the problem without anyone being compromised.
Thus, the United States of America geared itself
with the following solutions:
1.
Stressing out the importance of the China-ASEAN Declaration of Conduct
This recognized
the need to promote a peaceful, friendly and harmonious environment in the
South China Sea between them for the enhancement of peace, stability, economic
growth and prosperity in the region.
2.
Reaffirming the commitment to the purposes and principles of the
Charter of the United Nations, the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea,
the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia and the Five Principles
of Peaceful Coexistence.
During a speech at an ASEAN Convention,
President Barack Obama opined on the continued dispute over the South China
Sea, as he said, “South China Sea issue should be addressed in a peaceful way,
in accordance with international law, a rules-based regime, specifically the
application of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea.”
There’s a common ground between these two
solutions formulated and suggested by the United States, and that is heightened
regional cooperation. Idealistically, if we be too diplomatic, we would
conclude that these solutions were purposely suggested by the United States in
order to promote regional cooperation, understanding and mutual respect.
Realistically though, this is an obvious escape from the responsibility of
solving the dispute, which somehow promotes goodwill to everyone involved.
Making this hands-off gesture by the United States will help in avoiding
further complications such as an outburst of war.
We must be reminded that if USA would
choose to be aggressive and intervening to this dispute, it’s not just China
who’d raise arms against America; all of the rest of the four claimants will
lose confidence on the mighty America—an event that would compromise America’s
influence to the Asia-Pacific Region, and to the world as a whole.
VI. What’s Next: The
Future of US-China Relation
Notions of an inevitable turf are set on
the mindset of many to the future of the relationship between the ever powerful
America and the rising superstar, People’s Republic of China. Many believe that
this is not far from happening since over the years we have seen US aggression
and persistence in keeping its place in the world polity. We have seen America
apply every means possible, whether be it hard or soft diplomacy, force, or
economic maneuvers, just so it could continue to invoke its supremacy to the world.
Now, with China’s rise, I for one do not believe that if ever power transitions
may occur, it will be a peaceful one. No.
Many of the political analysts known in
International relations and World Politics in the likes of Henry Kissinger,
meet on one common ground of what may be the future of the US-China Relation.
Most arrive in an inevitable conclusion: Cold War; but each varies in their
views on how to avoid such.
According
to Henry Kissinger, to avoid the possibility of the next cold war, it is empirical
that the aim should be to create a tradition of respect and cooperation so that
the successors of the leaders meeting now continue to see it in their interest
to build an emerging world order as a joint enterprise.
Quoting Liberal Optimists in a web
political magazine, The A Times on the establishment of International
Institutions they believe that, “By so doing, they can help to ease or
counteract some of the pernicious effects of international anarchy, clearing the
way for higher levels of cooperation and trust than would otherwise be attainable.
The growth of international institutions in Asia and the expansion of both U.S.
and Chinese participation in them are drawing the United States and the PRC
into a thickening web of ties that liberal optimists believe will promote contact,
communication and, over time, greater mutual understanding and even trust, or
at the very least, a reduced likelihood of gross misperception.”
Also, the growth and development of
economic interdependence between and among nations of the world insures peace
and order Liberal optimists believe that bilateral economic exchange creates
shared interests in good relations between states. The greater the volume of
trade and investment owing between two countries, the more groups on both sides
will have a strong interest in avoiding conflict and preserving peace.
Despite an obvious ideological bias, some
political analysts believe that Democratization too can play a role in
pacifying any warnings and signs of a possible cold war. Former President George W. Bush said, “Economic
freedom creates habits of liberty. And habits of liberty create expectations of
democracy. . . . Trade freely with China, and time is on our side.”
Liberalists believes that regimes that
rely for their power and legitimacy on the consent of the governed are less
likely to enter lightly into military adventures or to engage in wars whose
true purpose is to line the pockets, and satisfy the vainglory, of their
leaders. As the number of democracies in the world increases, (as it has quite
dramatically, albeit at an uneven pace, over the course of the last two
centuries), the likelihood of international conflict should diminish.
VII. Conclusion
“There
is a Chinese proverb that speaks of treading different paths that lead to the
same destination. Our two nations have unique histories ... We have traveled
different paths, but that shared future is our common destination and responsibility.”
--Hillary Clinton, U.S. State Secretary
This
statement generally is the main goal of not just both the United States and
China but to every state in the world. The world seems to foresee a battle for
world supremacy between these giants, and that spells not drastic effects to
just any region but every single state will be affected. Thus, to sway away
from the inevitable, both these superpowers should start acting now.
After
having laid down the facts and concepts, we could therefore conclude that
though there may be hints of an inevitable Cold War between the United States
and China, both are going the extra mile of preserving the current world order.
We
can see that though China remains loyal to its realist’s orientation in dealing
with the world—and that is safeguarding and advancing the national interest as
the main goal—we can see an open mind willing to partake in the world’s shared
vision of achieving sustainable peace.
Equally
concerned to the preservation of peace and prosperity around the globe, the
United States of America remained true to its values—and that is promoting and
advancing freedom, equality and justice amongst all peoples of the world.
Like
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton believes, both may have varying ideals,
strategies and beliefs in their roles to the world, together they share a
common vision. If both of these states will work in a mutual coexistence
bounded by justice, equality, and freedom, through establishing more ties
mentioned above (e.g. economic interdependence, cooperation in various
international institutions), and though they have differing versions of
exceptionalism; they will maintain the current peace and order every person
regardless of nationality, and creed now enjoys.
War may be
inevitable, but preventions and solutions too are countless.
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